Study Estimates Lifetime Melanoma Risk to be 1 in 28

The risk of developing invasive or in situ melanoma in the United States is 1 in 28, according to a recent research letter in JAMA Dermatology.

In order to update information on the trends in melanoma incidence and mortality in the US, researchers obtained the absolute number of invasive melanomas reported in 2016, comparing them with data obtained in 2009. Using information on the estimated annual incidence, average life expectancy, and of developing melanoma. base years’ US population, the researchers calculated the lifetime risk melanoma.
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Overall, an estimated 76,380 Americans will be diagnosed with invasive melanoma in 2016. Incidence rates per 100,000 population climbed from 22.2 to 23.6. The current lifetime risk of invasive melanoma is 1 in 54 compared with 1 in 58 as reported in 2009, and the risk of in situ melanoma has risen from 1 in 78 to 1 in 58 during the period. This brings the risk of being diagnosed with either types of melanoma to 1 in 28.

“[D]espite the 2014 Surgeon General’s Call to Action to Prevent Skin Cancer, this study’s results demonstrate that the incidence of invasive melanoma in the United States is increasing on a lesser trajectory in the last 7 years than the mortality rate, suggesting that we may not yet be seeing the effect of earlier detection on melanoma mortality.”

—Michael Potts

Reference:

Glazer AM, Winkelmann RR, Farberg AS. Analysis of trends in US melanoma incidence and mortality [published online December 21, 2016]. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2016.4512.