Lifetime AF Risk Elevated With Smoking, Alcohol

The lifetime risk for developing atrial fibrillation (AF) is higher among individuals with at least 1 elevated risk factor for the condition, according to new findings.

Researchers recently found that individuals with an optimal AF risk factor profile at ages 55, 65, and 75 years had a lifetime risk for AF of 1 in 5.

However, this risk rose to more than 1 in 3 in those with at least 1 elevated risk factor, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and/or history of heart failure or myocardial infarction.

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The researchers arrived at this conclusion following a study of 5338 individuals who were free of AF at index ages 55 years.

Risk factors were assessed at index age as optimal, borderline (the presence of borderline risk factors and the absence of any elevated risk factors), or elevated (the presence of at least one risk factor).

Ultimately, 247 (4.6%) participants were deemed as having an optimal risk profile, whereas 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) had an elevated risk profile.

Results of the study revealed that, at age 55 years, the lifetime risk of AF was 23.4% for those with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% for those with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% for those with an elevated risk profile.

Participants with at least 1 elevated risk factor were found to have a 37.8% lifetime risk of AF, with a similar gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden at ages 65 and 75 years.

—Christina Vogt

Reference:

Staerk L, Wang B, Preis SR, et al. Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study [Published online April 26, 2018]. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k1453

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