Gastric Lesions Predict Future Risk of Gastric Cancer

Patients who undergo gastroscopy with biopsy for a number of gastric lesions are at an increased risk of developing gastric cancer within 20 years, according to a recent study.

In order to further explore the association between precancerous gastric lesions and the development of gastric cancer, researchers conducted a population based cohort study involving 405,172 participants who underwent gastric biopsy for non-malignant indications between 1979 and 2011.
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Overall, 1599 incidences of gastric cancer were recorded during follow-up. Researchers predicted that the risk of developing gastric cancer was 1 in 256 with normal mucosa, 1 in 85 with gastritis, 1 in 50 with atrophic gastritis, 1 in 39 with intestinal metaplasia, and 1 in 19 with dysplasia.

“Our results in a low risk Western patient population show that all stages of Correa’s cascade predict an incidence of gastric cancer above that of the general population. The quantified absolute risks, along with future studies on other risk stratification factors and cost-benefit analyses, should guide the development of surveillance policies,” they concluded.

—Michael Potts

Reference:

Song H, Ekheden IG, Zheng Z, et al. Incidence of gastric cancer among patients with gastric precancerous lesions: observational cohort study in a low risk Western population. BMJ2015;351:h3867