Alzheimer Disease Burden to Double by 2060

The Alzheimer disease burden in the US is projected to double by 2060, according to new estimates from the CDC.

While the primary risk factor for Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) is known to be age, race and ethnicity are known to be important risk factors as well, the CDC noted. However, estimates for ADRD among these subgroups do not exist.

For this reason, the CDC sought to estimate future US burden of ADRD by age, sex, and race and ethnicity by “applying subgroup-specific prevalence among Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years in 2014 to subgroup-specific population estimates for 2014 and population projection data from the US Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060.”

Overall, they found that the burden of ADRD would double from 1.6% in 2014 to 3.3% by 2060, and that the largest increases would be seen among Hispanic adults, with black adults having the highest prevalence.

“These estimates can be used for public health planning related to providing culturally competent care for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers from diverse backgrounds. Such estimates may provide a basis for planning and interventions, especially for regions that will face a disproportionately high increase of dementia cases due to their current demographic composition.”

—Michael Potts

Reference:

Matthews KA, Xu W, Gaglioti AH, et al. Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States (2015–2060) in adults aged ≥65 years [published online September 19, 2018]. Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2018.06.3063.